The U.S. merger and acquisition landscape continues to demonstrate strategic resilience, with Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification data through June 2025 revealing a market that prioritizes careful planning over aggressive expansion. Companies filed 1,519 HSR notifications during the first nine months of Fiscal Year 2025 (October 2024 through June 2025), maintaining steady deal flow despite challenging economic conditions.
Deal Volume Reflects Strategic Discipline
June 2025 recorded 157 HSR filings, bringing the monthly average to 168.8 transactions—a modest decline from FY 2024’s 173.3 average. This slight reduction signals market recalibration rather than retreat, as companies focus on strategic value creation over transaction volume.
The fiscal year’s filing pattern reveals deliberate timing strategies. November peaked at 233 filings, followed by February’s 230 submissions. A significant dip to 89 filings in March—the year’s lowest point—preceded a gradual recovery, with June’s numbers returning to the fiscal year average. This volatility suggests companies are strategically timing their deals based on regulatory environment, market conditions, and internal readiness.
Historical context supports this interpretation. While 2000’s peak of 4,926 filings and 2009’s trough of 716 represented market extremes, recent years have averaged approximately 2,370 annual filings since 2020, indicating a mature market emphasizing transaction quality over quantity.
Economic Backdrop Shapes Transaction Strategy
Current macroeconomic conditions provide crucial context for understanding deal-making patterns. Real GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1 2025, driven primarily by increased imports and reduced government spending, though consumer spending and investment provided some offset. Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) grew modestly by 0.2%, while corporate profits declined $90.6 billion, creating mixed signals for investment appetite.
Inflation remains a persistent concern, with the gross domestic purchases price index increasing 3.4% and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rising 3.5%. These pressures influence corporate investment decisions and deal valuations.
Consumer financial health presents additional complexities. Personal income and disposable income both fell 0.4% and 0.6% respectively in May 2025, with real disposable income dropping 0.7%. However, the personal savings rate held steady at 4.5%, suggesting cautious but stable consumer positioning that could support certain sectors.
Critical Considerations for Deal Professionals
The current environment places premium importance on specialized expertise across three key areas:
Cybersecurity Risk Management: Integration periods create heightened vulnerability as organizations merge IT infrastructure and data systems. Successful deals require comprehensive pre-acquisition risk assessments, secure transaction data handling, and continuous post-merger threat monitoring. Regulatory expectations for demonstrable cyber diligence in M&A due diligence continue to intensify.
Information Governance Integration: Professionals must navigate the complex process of harmonizing disparate data policies, compliance standards, and cross-border frameworks. This challenge becomes particularly acute in multinational transactions involving multiple jurisdictional requirements and varying regulatory standards.
eDiscovery Preparedness: Heightened regulatory scrutiny demands proactive eDiscovery capabilities. Teams must maintain rapid response readiness, deploy robust cloud-based tools, and leverage advanced analytics to handle requests from agencies like the FTC and DOJ. Audit and litigation preparedness increasingly differentiates successful transactions from delayed or abandoned deals.
Market Outlook: Quality Over Quantity
The June 2025 data reinforces a broader trend toward strategic discipline in M&A activity. Despite economic contraction and inflationary pressures, consistent HSR filing levels demonstrate that companies remain committed to long-term value creation through strategic transactions. Modern dealmaking increasingly emphasizes strategic alignment, technological compatibility, and operational resilience over opportunistic expansion.
This environment rewards thorough due diligence and robust governance frameworks. Companies that integrate cybersecurity, information governance, and eDiscovery professionals into early transaction planning position themselves for better compliance outcomes and more successful value realization.
Looking Ahead
Fiscal Year 2025 appears to be defining itself through pragmatic growth and operational discipline. While total filings track slightly below the previous year, the data suggests thoughtful market recalibration rather than sector retreat. As companies navigate ongoing economic challenges, demand for specialized expertise in transaction data security, governance, and disclosure will likely intensify.
The current HSR filing patterns indicate a maturing M&A market where success depends increasingly on strategic execution rather than deal volume. Organizations that adapt to this environment by investing in proper risk management, governance integration, and regulatory preparedness will be best positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Analysis based on Hart-Scott-Rodino filing data through June 2025, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, and industry observations. For the most current HSR statistics and regulatory updates, consult Federal Trade Commission publications and qualified legal counsel.
HSR Transaction Activity by the Numbers
This chart displays the number of Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification transactions reported annually from fiscal year 2000 through 2025. The data reveals significant fluctuations over the past quarter-century, with a peak of 4,926 transactions in 2000 during the dot-com boom and a low of 716 in 2009 amid the global financial crisis. More recently, filings have demonstrated a recalibrated but resilient M&A landscape, averaging approximately 2,370 transactions annually from 2020 through 2025. This long-term perspective underscores the cyclical nature of merger activity and highlights the market’s capacity for strategic adaptation amid shifting economic conditions.
Chart 1: HSR Act Annual Transactions Reported in Fiscal Years 2000 – 2025
HSR Transactions by Month: October 2024 – May 2025
This chart presents the monthly Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification transaction counts for fiscal year 2025, covering October 2024 through June 2025. The data illustrates significant variability in deal activity, with a peak of 233 transactions in November and a low of 89 in March. June recorded 157 filings, aligning closely with the fiscal year’s monthly average of approximately 169 transactions. These fluctuations reflect ongoing market dynamics, strategic timing, and seasonal factors influencing merger and acquisition activity. Despite the volatility, the overall trend points to a stable and deliberate pace of transactions.
Chart 2: Monthly HSR Act Transactions Reported in the Fiscal Year 2025 (October-September)
HSR Transactions by Month: Fiscal Year 2024
This chart details the monthly Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification transactions reported throughout fiscal year 2024, from October 2023 through September 2024. The data highlights a generally consistent level of M&A activity, with monthly filings ranging from a low of 135 transactions in February to a high of 218 transactions in August. Notably, the summer months (July and August) saw an uptick in filings, suggesting increased deal flow during that period. The total number of transactions reported for fiscal year 2024 was 2,079. Overall, the monthly distribution underscores a stable and resilient M&A environment across the fiscal year.
Chart 3: Monthly HSR Act Transactions Reported in the Fiscal Year 2024 (October-September)
HSR Transactions by Month: Fiscal Year 2023
This chart provides a month-by-month breakdown of Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification transactions reported during fiscal year 2023, spanning October 2022 through September 2023. The data reflects moderate variability, with monthly filings ranging from a low of 114 transactions in April to a high of 207 in November. Activity remained relatively steady throughout the year, with minor fluctuations that may be attributed to both seasonal patterns and broader market conditions. The total number of transactions reported for fiscal year 2023 was 1,805. This monthly perspective offers insight into the pacing of M&A activity during a year marked by economic adjustment and evolving deal dynamics.
Chart 4: Monthly HSR Act Transactions Reported in the Fiscal Year 2023 (October-September)
HSR Transactions by Month: Fiscal Year 2020 (Pandemic Impact)
This chart illustrates the monthly Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notification transactions reported during the fiscal year 2020, spanning October 2019 through September 2020. The data highlights the volatility of M&A activity amid the global events of the pandemic year, with a notable dip in April and May reflecting the initial economic impact and uncertainty. Monthly filings ranged from a low of 57 transactions in May to a high of 206 transactions in November, underscoring the fluctuating nature of deal-making during this unprecedented period. The total number of transactions reported for fiscal year 2020 was 1,637, demonstrating the resilience and eventual recovery of the M&A market despite significant challenges.
Chart 5: Monthly HSR Act Transactions Reported in the Fiscal Year 2020 – Initial Pandemic Economic Impact in April and May
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Source: HaystackID published with permission of ComplexDiscovery OÜ
