As the July 9, 2025, end date for President Donald Trump's suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs draws near, stakeholders should consider where ongoing bilateral negotiations stand, what the potential outcomes may be and how the shifting trade and tariff dynamics could impact their interests. Holland & Knight's International Trade Group has been monitoring the bilateral trade talks and provides a status update on the 18 ongoing negotiations in this alert.
Background: Global Reciprocal Tariffs
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on imports of goods from every U.S. trading partner, throwing U.S. bilateral trade relations into flux. The reciprocal tariffs, which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports into the United States from nearly all countries and higher, country-specific reciprocal tariffs calculated based on bilateral trade deficits. These country-specific rates ranged from 11 percent to 50 percent.
The Trump Administration announced a 90-day pause on nearly all of the country-specific reciprocal tariffs on April 9, 2025, reducing these tariffs to the 10 percent baseline while the U.S. and its trading partners negotiate new bilateral trade agreements. This pause on the country-specific reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, 2025, after which these tariffs will go back into effect unless otherwise modified.
Status of Bilateral Trade Negotiations
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) reportedly has led the bilateral negotiations and made progress toward reaching deals with several trading partners. However, the administration has released little information on the status of the bilateral negotiations or potential trade deal terms. U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently remarked that multiple trade agreements are nearing completion; however, China and the United Kingdom remain the only agreed-upon deals so far. As such, following the July 9 deadline, the administration could reimpose country-specific reciprocal tariffs on a substantial number of trading partners that have not yet reached a deal with the U.S. Reimposition of these tariffs could significantly increase costs to import goods into the U.S., disrupt supply chains and impact all sectors of the economy.
In the chart below, the most recent public reporting on the 18 ongoing bilateral trade negotiations identified by Holland & Knight is highlighted. It should be reiterated, however, that the U.S. government has released little information on these negotiations.
Takeaways
- With less than two weeks until the July 9 deadline, the U.S. has announced deals only with the U.K. and China, although Secretary Lutnick recently indicated that the administration expects 10 trading partners to reach agreements with the United States before July 9, which he says will inform the terms of other agreements. Public reports indicate that Indian and Japanese trade officials are scheduled to meet with U.S. counterparts in the coming days in the hopes of reaching final agreements, suggesting they may be among the 10 countries Secretary Lutnick referenced. Still, the Trump Administration's original goal of achieving "90 deals in 90 days" appears far from reach.
- Recently reported comments from members of the Trump Administration indicate that trading partners who do not reach agreements by the deadline will face increased tariffs but have the ability to continue negotiations thereafter. If this occurs, U.S. companies that rely on imported goods may face significant tariff hikes.
- The unclear legal status of the reciprocal tariffs creates an additional layer of uncertainty. Two recent federal court rulings struck down the reciprocal tariffs, holding that these measures exceed the president's authority under IEEPA. However the tariffs remain in place for now while appellate courts hear appeals filed by the administration. Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court may decide the legality of the reciprocal tariffs.
- Given all these sources of uncertainty, stakeholders should prepare for volatility and strategize for a variety of potential outcomes.
